In regions like Ontario, where many industrial electricity users are subject to charges like the Global Adjustment (GA), coincident peaks are more than just a technical concern; they’re a financial flashpoint. Identifying and avoiding these system-wide demand spikes can result in substantial cost savings for large consumers.
But predicting a coincident peak isn’t always easy. It’s a complex mix of grid, weather, behavior, and even economic activity. To build a peak prediction or demand management strategy, you first need to understand what causes a coincident peak event and why it’s more complicated than it looks.
Here are the key factors that drive coincident peak events in 2025, and what smart businesses can do to anticipate and act on them.
1. Weather Conditions
Weather is the single most influential factor when it comes to coincident peak events. During extreme temperatures, whether it’s a summer heatwave or a winter cold snap, electricity demand skyrockets.
- In summer, air conditioners, cooling towers, and refrigeration systems drive peak demand, especially on hot, humid weekdays.
- In winter, electric heating systems and increased indoor activity contribute to higher usage.
High-temperature days with little wind (and cloud cover) can also suppress renewable generation, such as wind and solar, increasing the strain on the grid. That’s why peak prediction tools often weigh weather forecasts heavily in their models, because a few degrees can be the difference between a typical day and a grid-wide peak.
2. Time of Day and Day of Week
Coincident peaks tend to happen during specific hours, typically between 4:00 PM and 8:00 PM, when residential and commercial loads overlap. However, the exact hour can vary based on the season, region, and even daylight hours.
Similarly, peaks rarely occur on weekends or statutory holidays. These low-demand days often see reduced industrial and commercial activity, lowering the likelihood of setting a new peak.
Understanding these patterns helps facility operators narrow down risk windows and avoid overreacting to low-probability events.
3. Grid Demand Forecasts and Generation Mix
System operators, such as Ontario’s IESO, publish daily demand forecasts, which serve as a strong indicator of potential peak events. When forecasted demand is near historical highs, especially when renewable generation is low, it’s a sign that the grid is at risk of hitting a coincident peak.
The generation mix also plays a role. If hydro, wind, or solar output is weak, the system may rely more heavily on gas or imports to meet demand. This increases the potential for strain during high-load hours. Conversely, strong renewable output can reduce net demand, even on a hot day.
Facilities that monitor demand forecasts and real-time generation reports are better equipped to respond before a peak forms.
4. Economic Activity and Load Growth
Broader economic activity also affects coincident peaks. When industrial production, construction, or service sector operations increase, electricity usage also rises. In recent years, the electrification of processes, like vehicle charging or electric heating, has contributed to load growth, which raises the baseline demand.
As cities expand and data centers, EV charging infrastructure, and electrified transit systems come online, peak days are becoming more frequent and more intense. Businesses that don’t adjust their strategies to account for growing baseline demand risk being caught off guard.
5. Consumer Behavior and Usage Shifts
Trends in consumer and business behaviors, such as remote work, energy efficiency improvements, or shifts in building occupancy, can influence the timing and intensity of demand peaks. For example:
- A shift to remote work during the pandemic altered weekday usage patterns, smoothing out some commercial peaks but increasing residential load.
- Energy-efficient HVAC systems and lighting retrofits have changed how buildings draw power, which affects the load curve.
Peak prediction tools now incorporate behavioral analytics to account for these shifts, helping businesses adjust to new normal demand profiles.
6. Unplanned Outages or Grid Events
Unexpected events, such as generation outages, transmission line failures, or weather-related disruptions, can push demand to its limit. When the system loses generation unexpectedly, such as a gas plant tripping offline during a heatwave, the remaining load may suddenly shift to fewer resources, spiking system-wide demand.
These events are difficult to predict but can trigger a coincident peak if they coincide with already high-demand periods. That’s why real-time alert systems and flexible curtailment strategies are critical, even on days that start off looking average.
Conclusion
Coincident peaks are shaped by a web of factors: temperature, time, grid forecasts, economic signals, and even the behavior of millions of users. No single indicator can guarantee a peak event, but by understanding the full picture, businesses can build a proactive energy strategy that balances cost, risk, and operational impact. Whether you’re managing a manufacturing plant, cold storage facility, or commercial property, staying ahead of coincident peak events requires more than guesswork; it demands reliable forecasting, real-time insights, and timely action. That’s where pTrack™, Edgecom Energy’s peak prediction platform, comes in. Using advanced machine learning and weather-integrated forecasting models, pTrack™ helps you anticipate system peaks with precision, reduce Global Adjustment costs, and make smarter energy decisions without disrupting operations.
